Hurricane Nolo stalled south of Hawaii's Big Island on Saturday, and forecasters warned that its rain could set off catastrophic flooding and mudslides even without a landfall. The heaviest downpours are aimed at communities still recovering from Hurricane Lala in August.
The Category 2 storm, with maximum sustained winds of 105 mph, was nearly stationary Saturday morning, CBS News reported. Its center is forecast to stay well south of the main islands. The National Hurricane Center still warned of "catastrophic life-threatening flooding and mudslides, especially in areas of steep terrain."
The worst rain is expected over the southeastern Big Island, where Lala struck in August and the ground is still saturated, according to Associated Press reporting published by PBS News. Lala washed away about 100 homes, CBS News reported.
Far to the east, Hurricane Polo, one of the most powerful storms ever recorded in the Eastern Pacific, has already pushed seawater into homes on Mexico's coast. It is forecast to reach the Baja California Peninsula around Monday.
Hawaii: a stalled storm over soaked ground
On Friday, Nolo's center sat about 185 miles south of South Point and about 380 miles south-southeast of Honolulu, creeping north-northeast at about 5 mph, the AP reported.
By Saturday morning it had nearly stopped. Forecasters expect it to turn west and speed up later Saturday and into Sunday, to strengthen later Saturday and to weaken Monday, according to CBS News. Nolo is expected to become a major hurricane, meaning Category 3 or stronger, at some point this weekend.
The storm is wide. On Saturday, hurricane-force winds extended up to 45 miles from its core and tropical-storm-force winds up to 140 miles, CBS News reported. Gusts on land could reach 50 mph, and a storm surge of 1 to 3 feet could bring large, dangerous waves and coastal flooding, according to the AP.
Hawaii County is under a hurricane watch and a tropical storm warning, and Maui County is under a tropical storm watch. Tropical storm conditions reached the Big Island on Friday night, and hurricane conditions were possible early Saturday, especially in steep terrain.
Rain is the central threat. The AP reported that forecasters expect 10 to 15 inches across the eastern and southern Big Island, with a maximum of 25 inches. That is down from an earlier forecast of 15 to 30 inches with a maximum of 35.
Other areas face smaller but still serious totals, according to CBS News:
- Western Big Island: 2 to 4 inches, up to 8
- Maui: 4 to 6 inches, up to 10
- The rest of Hawaii: 1 to 3 inches, up to 5
Maui could see heavy rain and possibly life-threatening flooding and mudslides, the AP reported.
One storm after another for the same islands
Nolo arrives just over a month after Lala caused devastation in Hawaii, CBS News reported.
When Lala brushed past the islands in August, it washed away about 100 homes, set off landslides and knocked out power across wide areas. Then, earlier in September, Hurricane Lowell struck Kauai and Niihau with damaging winds and heavy rain, toppling trees, damaging roads and leaving thousands without electricity, according to CBS News.
Now the same repair crews are being shifted to meet the next storm. Hawaiian Electric said workers helping restore power on Kauai after Lowell would head back to Oahu, Maui and the Big Island to get ready for Nolo, the AP reported. The reports did not say how the move would affect remaining repair work on Kauai.
On the Big Island, workers spent hours Friday piling up berms to channel water and hauling off big debris, according to Erika Kapu, who runs Hawaii programs for the humanitarian group CORE. Her organization and partner nonprofits flew camp stoves, hygiene products and other supplies from Oahu to a community relief hub on the Big Island that has operated since Lala, the AP reported.
What officials are telling residents
Gov. Josh Green issued an emergency proclamation that activated more than 230 Hawaii National Guard members, and schools closed, the AP reported. Green also asked for an emergency disaster declaration covering four Hawaii counties.
Separately, Green said President Donald Trump approved an emergency declaration for Hawaii on Friday that provides federal resources and assistance, according to CBS News. The reports did not detail how much aid is involved or whether the four-county request has been acted on.
National Hurricane Center Director Michael Brennan urged Big Island residents on Friday to get somewhere safe and stay there. "People are going to want to kind of shelter in place on the Big Island, be in their safe place, certainly by later today, tonight, well into Saturday," he said, according to the AP.
He urged people not to venture out. "Don't venture out if you don't have to into the dangerous flooding environment, but also high winds. We can have trees and power lines down," Brennan told the AP.
Hawaii County Mayor Kimo Alameda pressed residents to act before the water rises. "We encourage everyone to complete their preparations, stay connected to official alerts and weather updates, and secure safe shelter before flooding strikes," he said in remarks reported by the AP.
County officials urged people in flood-prone areas to consider moving to shelters or other safe places, and sand for sandbags was available to the public at several sites, the AP reported. The state Department of Land and Natural Resources closed all state parks on the Big Island and Maui, according to CBS News.
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Mexico: Polo's waves hit a port city
Polo climbed back to Category 5 on Friday with estimated sustained winds of 180 mph, the AP reported. By Saturday morning its winds had eased to near 160 mph, still above the 157 mph Category 5 threshold, and its core was about 425 miles west-southwest of Cabo Corrientes in Jalisco, moving west-northwest at 10 mph, according to CBS News.
Early in the week, Polo's winds jumped from 45 mph to 150 mph in about 24 hours, far past the 58 mph gain that marks extreme rapid intensification. Measured by central pressure, it is the second-strongest Eastern Pacific hurricane on record, behind Patricia in 2015, CBS News reported.
Citing forecast models, the State Department said Polo should weaken to Category 1 before making landfall in northern Baja California Sur on Monday, then push northeast into southern Sonora. Parts of Baja California Sur could get 4 to 8 inches of rain, with up to 10 in places.
The storm has already hit working people on the coast. In the port city of Lázaro Cárdenas, in Michoacán state, seawater swept through homes and residents were clearing out debris and thick mud, the AP reported.
Restaurant owner Alicia Contreras said waves she put at 15 feet badly damaged her restaurant's walls and roof. "This is huge because we have no other source of income. Now we're just surviving," she told the AP.
Earlier in the week, fellow restaurant owner Concepción López Villegas feared losing a business built over decades. "And of course, we're sad because it's our heritage, our legacy that from one moment to another could be destroyed," she said, according to the AP.
On Wednesday, Mexican President Claudia Sheinbaum said experts indicated Polo was unlikely to touch land. Forecasts have since shifted to a Baja landfall.
Mexican authorities opened shelters, cleared beaches, closed schools and deployed 15,000 security personnel along the coast.
Flooding risk reaches the U.S. Southwest
Brennan said Polo's moisture could arrive in the southwestern U.S. by Monday and may cause scattered flash flooding in the Four Corners region, particularly Arizona and New Mexico, the AP reported.
The National Hurricane Center said swells from Polo are "likely to cause life-threatening surf, rip currents, and coastal flooding." In Southern California, biologists moved eggs from two olive ridley sea turtle nests to the Aquarium of the Pacific in Long Beach because of high tides and dangerous surf.
An El Niño-charged Pacific season
CBS News has linked this year's busy Pacific season to an unusually strong El Niño. That climate pattern tends to boost Pacific storms by supplying moist air and weakening the wind shear that tears hurricanes apart, and it traditionally suppresses Atlantic hurricanes, the AP reported.
"There are all the ingredients that hurricanes need to get really strong really fast," said Philip Klotzbach, a research scientist at Colorado State University, who credited El Niño's warmer water and wind patterns for Polo's growth.
Polo became the Pacific season's third Category 5 hurricane, after Genevieve and Lowell. As of Wednesday, no Atlantic hurricane had formed this year, a record for the longest season start without one.
Monday is the next major marker on both fronts: Polo is forecast to come ashore in Baja California Sur, and Nolo is expected to begin weakening.