YouGov poll puts Gina Hinojosa 1 point ahead of Abbott in Texas

YouGov’s survey, conducted Sept. 28 through Monday, Oct. 5, found Hinojosa at 48% and Abbott at 47% among 3,625 likely voters. One percent chose someone else, 5% were undecided, and the poll’s stated margin of error was 3 points.

What do the Texas governor polls show?

The results amount to a small Abbott lead in one survey and narrow Hinojosa leads in two others. Each poll reflects answers gathered during its own field period, rather than a count of ballots cast. The different results do not establish that individual voters changed their minds.

The latest poll’s one-point difference is within its stated margin of error, so it does not establish a clear Hinojosa lead. The other surveys also show narrow margins, with their leads on opposite sides. Together, they point to a competitive race, not a settled outcome.

Joshua Blank, research director of the Texas Politics Project at the University of Texas at Austin, told TIME that the contest would hinge on turnout. He described a Hinojosa victory as a significant interruption to conservative legislative advances, but not proof that Texas had changed its partisan identity.

Rice University political science professor Mark Jones assessed Hinojosa’s chances as relatively low, citing her policy positioning and Abbott’s campaign resources. Jones also said Abbott might win by a narrower margin than in his previous gubernatorial elections. Those assessments differ, while the polling itself remains tight and mixed.

What could change for Texans?

A Hinojosa win would make her the first Democrat elected Texas governor since 1990. Abbott won reelection in 2022 by more than 10 percentage points, and Republicans have held the governorship for more than three decades. A change in party control would be notable, but would not by itself demonstrate a lasting statewide realignment.

The governor can influence public education through appointments, including the state education commissioner, the State Board of Education chair, members of the State Board for Educator Certification and university regents. Those positions affect a public education system serving nearly 5.5 million Texas children.

Hinojosa’s stated education priorities include ending standardized testing, stopping state takeovers of public schools and opposing private-school vouchers. Abbott’s stated priorities include parental control in education and border security; his official biography also highlights job creation and individual liberties. The candidates are offering different approaches, not enacted policies.

The governor also has veto power. Hinojosa has said she would use it to block partisan congressional redistricting efforts. That pledge puts the office’s ability to check legislation among the choices before voters, alongside the candidates’ competing education priorities.

Blank’s focus on turnout is central to reading these surveys: a slight lead in a poll is not a result at the ballot box. The polls offer different snapshots of the race, while the governor’s appointment and veto powers make the eventual choice consequential for Texas schools and state policy.