Russian fuel supplies strain as Ukraine claims 51% of refining capacity hit

What does Ukraine’s 51% figure cover?

Ukraine’s Defense Ministry said its assessment drew on analysts from the country’s intelligence services, General Staff and Defense Ministry. The reported target list included refineries in Moscow, Yaroslavl, Ust-Luga, Perm, Saratov and Syzran.

The 51% figure describes the share of refining capacity Ukraine says strikes put out of action. It is not a claim that 51% of Russia’s refineries were destroyed. The AP said it could not independently verify the ministry’s assessment.

The distinction between capacity and throughput matters. Capacity is how much crude a refinery system can process; throughput measures how much it actually processes. A fall in throughput can reflect pressure on the sector, but it is not itself a measure of how much capacity strikes disabled.

The International Energy Agency counts 32 major Russian refineries with about 6.5 million barrels per day of installed capacity. Its measures of refinery activity offer context about the sector, but they are not a facility-by-facility confirmation of Ukraine’s 51% estimate.

What do the IEA’s figures show?

The IEA reported that Russian refinery throughput fell to 3.8 million barrels per day in June, about 30% below the same month a year earlier. That is a substantial decline in oil processing, but it does not establish what portion of installed capacity was disabled by attacks.

The agency also said Russian gasoline output was 20% below 2025 levels and estimated diesel production had fallen nearly 30%. Russia has restricted fuel exports, delayed refinery maintenance and lowered fuel-quality standards as it works to maintain domestic supplies, according to the IEA’s analysis.

Repair timelines depend on which equipment is damaged. The IEA estimates that serious damage to complex secondary units, which help produce and improve fuels such as gasoline and diesel, takes an average of six to eight months to repair. Minor damage to crude-distillation units can take one to two weeks.

The agency forecasts average Russian refinery throughput of 4 million barrels per day for the rest of 2026 and in 2027. That is a market outlook, not an independent check of Ukraine’s claim about strike-disabled capacity.

Who bears the costs of refinery disruption?

Ukrainian Defense Minister Yevhenii Khmara said refinery damage weakens Russia’s economy and its ability to supply its forces. Russian President Vladimir Putin said on Oct. 1 that the attacks had partly achieved Ukraine’s stated aim of harming Russia’s economy. He estimated their cost at about 1% of gross domestic product, an estimate reported by the AP.

The IEA has also reported domestic fuel shortages and rising prices in Russia. It links lower Russian diesel output and exports to pressure on global markets for middle-distillate fuels, a category that includes diesel. In September, the AP reported, U.S. President Donald Trump urged Ukraine to stop striking Russian refineries as fuel markets faced pressure.

The consequences of energy pressure are also visible in Ukraine. Scheduled power cuts began Tuesday, Oct. 6, to ease pressure on the grid, Euronews reported. Ukrainian officials said a Russian overnight assault hit Kyiv and other regions.

How are attacks continuing on both sides?

The IEA says Ukraine has targeted Russian oil infrastructure since Russia’s full-scale invasion began in 2022, with attacks intensifying in 2025 and 2026. The agency says strikes increasingly hit complex refinery units that produce fuels such as diesel and gasoline, where serious damage can take months to repair.

On Wednesday, Russia’s Defense Ministry said Russian forces had struck industrial sites used for missile-and-drone production and storage, along with port infrastructure and ship-repair sites. Ukrainian officials also reported strikes on Kyiv and other regions, while scheduled electricity cuts had begun the day before.

The IEA’s figures document lower Russian processing and fuel output, while Ukraine’s 51% assessment remains unverified. On the Ukrainian side, scheduled cuts have put the pressure on the power grid directly into people’s daily lives.