Senate GOP super PAC pauses North Carolina ads, books millions for Kansas

A source familiar with SLF’s plans told Semafor that the group viewed the move as an efficient use of resources to preserve the Republican Senate majority. Its choices also shape which race receives its next wave of ads—and which messages voters in those states may encounter.

Why Kansas is getting new attention

Kansas looked less likely than North Carolina to demand this kind of Republican spending. Donald Trump won Kansas by nearly 16 percentage points in 2024, compared with just over 3 points in North Carolina. Marshall won his first Senate race in 2020 by more than 11 points.

A Democrat has not won a Kansas Senate race since 1932, AP reported, or come within 10 points since 1974. That history makes the new reservation notable, but it does not turn an ad booking into an election forecast. Marshall is the Republican incumbent; Democrat Adam Hamilton is trying to break a long losing streak for his party.

Sen. Tim Scott, who chairs the National Republican Senatorial Committee, predicted Marshall would win but acknowledged a tighter contest than he wanted. “Kansas is a very competitive state,” Scott said, according to AP wire reporting published by PBS News.

AP reported that higher fuel costs and other economic concerns have contributed to Republican worries about Kansas. Jeanna Repass, chair of the Kansas Democratic Party, blamed the war in Iran for higher diesel prices that she said were hurting farmers, including Republicans. That causal account is her assessment, not a finding established by the spending figures.

Hamilton, who leads a United Methodist church, has secured endorsements from two former Republican Kansas governors. Bill Graves endorsed him Sept. 23; Mike Hayden announced his endorsement Friday. The endorsements show support for Hamilton across party lines, but the reports do not disclose the internal polling or assessments behind SLF’s spending decision.

What the North Carolina pause does—and does not—mean

North Carolina remains a potential Democratic pickup. Whatley, a former Republican National Committee chair chosen by Trump, faces Roy Cooper, who served two terms as governor from 2017 through 2025. Republican senators have occupied both North Carolina seats since 2015. Trump carried the state by just over 3 points in 2024.

Trump expressed concern about Whatley’s prospects while saying he hoped Whatley would win, AP reported. Whatley campaign spokesperson DJ Griffin said the campaign had the resources to make its case against Cooper and win. Cooper campaign manager Jeff Allen said his side remained focused on earning votes.

The pause therefore says more about one major group’s spending priorities than about the result of the race. SLF has already put about $32 million into North Carolina. Holding further ads does not erase that spending, prove Whatley cannot win or establish that every Republican outside group has left the state.

Semafor reported that a separate Trump-aligned group had no additional North Carolina spending booked beyond that week. That is another limit on scheduled ads, not a complete accounting of every Republican group’s plans. Nor do the reports say whether SLF will resume its North Carolina advertising.

Outside money sets the scale of the Kansas ad campaign

The Kansas bookings show how much attention an outside group can direct toward a race relative to the candidates’ own advertising. AP reported that Marshall’s campaign had reserved $2.3 million in ads and had another $500,000 in outside support. Hamilton had booked $590,000 in advertising and had a little more than $556,000 in outside help.

By either reported figure, SLF’s new Kansas reservation alone is larger than either campaign’s booked advertising. Those figures describe different pools of money: campaign reservations, support from other groups and SLF’s future bookings. Together, they show how a decision by an outside spender can change the scale of planned advertising in a race.

The group is choosing a message as well as a state. Semafor reported that an SLF Kansas ad attacks Hamilton’s immigration record and links him to national Democratic figures Kamala Harris and Hillary Clinton. The reports do not establish how many voters will see that ad or whether it will change anyone’s vote.

Democrats’ outside spending arm, the Senate Majority PAC, is watching the change. Its spokesperson, Lauren French, said Republicans were reacting to the possibility that Hamilton could win. Marshall’s campaign did not directly comment to AP on the new SLF spending.

Ad reservations track planned placements, not completed advertising or electoral impact. Public spending totals have limits, too: the Federal Election Commission’s North Carolina Senate page says its displayed independent-expenditure totals use periodic filings and leave out 24- and 48-hour reports. Neither a booking figure nor a single displayed total can settle how much voters ultimately hear from outside groups.

What the spending shift says about the Senate map

Republicans entered the cycle expecting more opportunities to flip Democratic-held seats than serious threats to their own, AP reported. Protecting Marshall in Kansas while pausing further support for Whatley in North Carolina points to a more defensive spending choice. It does not mean Republicans have given up on North Carolina or that Democrats are favored to win Kansas.

The two races present different calculations for the group trying to preserve a majority. More advertising in North Carolina would support a Republican candidate seeking to keep a seat in GOP hands. The Kansas reservation instead backs an incumbent in a state where Republican Senate candidates have won for decades.

Democrats still face a difficult route to Senate control. AP reported that they would need to defeat multiple Republican incumbents in states including Ohio, Maine and Alaska while defending competitive Democratic seats. A newly contested Kansas race gives them another place to challenge a Republican, but a spending shift alone does not supply the wins they need.

For now, further SLF advertising in North Carolina remains on hold, while its Kansas reservations cover the coming month. How much more either party’s outside groups book in those states—and whether SLF returns to North Carolina—remains unresolved.